Climate change policy and burden sharing in the European Union: applying alternative equity rules to a CGE-framework

The objective of this paper is to present different equity rules that can be applied to the initial allocation of greenhouse gas entitlements and to analyse the potential impacts of these rules EU-wide as well as on the level of member states. The methodological framework used in the empirical part of the paper is based on the GEM-E3 model, a multi-country and multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model for fourteen EU-member states. The major finding of the paper is that being ex ante favoured with respect to the initial allocation of permits might not hold ex post, i.e. when trade of permits and actual emission reductions are carried out. The reason can be found in two effects. First, the interdependence of the EU economies allows smaller economies not to make full use of the advantages they get through the ability-to-pay allocation: The negative impact on the economic perfomance of the big economies leads to a drop of export demand in the smaller economies, which in turn lowers the expected positive impact on welfare in the latter ones. Second, the way of how a surplus of permits in a particular country is used has considerable impacts on consumer welfare. Selling the surplus of permits on the international market and use the receipts to reduce public deficit is one way, but it has no direct impact on demand. Other, more demand stimulating recycling strategies of the surplus (e.g. a lump-sum transfer to households) might be more promising if welfare losses are to be minimzed. Both effects may outweigh the positive effect realized ex ante in some countries due to a more ?fair? initial allocation of permits. The outcome emphasizes the importance of a consideration of full general equilibrium effects across countries. --

Modelling of foreign trade in applied general equilibrium models: theoretical approaches and sensitivity analysis with the GEM-E3 model

The specification of the world closure, i.e. the way of closing the domestic economy model by incorporating the external sector, is a crucial component for those models in which production and consumption is not specified endogenously for all countries. This paper looks explicitly at the assumptions concerning the trade behaviour of the rest of the world that can be found in literature and in empirical applications, such as the GEM-E3 General Equilibrium Model for the EU. Starting from a description of the closure rule in the actual GEM-E3 model version, two main changes in the foreign trade specification are proposed and tested using an EU-wide ecological tax reform scenario. The first change refers to the rest of the world?s export supply function in which a constant finite price elasticity is introduced. The second change concerns the rest of the world?s import demand function in which an activity variable is incorporated. In summary, the impact in terms of economic welfare and changes in macroeconomic variables is noteworthy for the former case while no substantial changes could be observed for the latter case. Additionally, the sensitivity of the GEM-E3 model to variations in key parameter values such as the upper-level Armington elasticity are analysed. Results indicate that the model can be interpreted as quite robust to parameter changes. --

Tradable SO-2-permits in the European Union: a practicable scheme for public utilities

In this paper, a practicable scheme of SO2-emission permits for European power producers is developed. Background is the second UN-ECE Sulphur Protocol from 1994 (Protocol of Oslo). After discussing some theoretical models of spatially differentiated permit schemes, evaluating the U.S. Acid Rain and RECLAIM Program, and considering the setting in the EU-15 countries, a scheme of locally undifferentiated emission permits is proposed which is distinguished by a high degree of both economic efficiency and market functioning. However, as our model simulations indicate, national deposition targets will be violated in all probability due to the scheme?s missing differentiation regarding the receptors. The risk of hot spots is addressed adequately by a differentiated bundle of countermeasures. The general economic impact of an EU-wide permit scheme is low, and, in terms of change in GDP, lower compared to a non-coordinated SO2 policy. The proposed mode of the initial permit allocation allows for early price signals and guarantees maximum static and dynamic efficiency. Balancing the interests of existing and new emitters, a long-term transition from the grandfathering to the free auction procedure is chosen. --

Climate Change Policy and Burden Sharing in the European Union - Applying alternative equity rules to a CGE-framework

The objective of this paper is to present different equity rules that can be applied to the initial allocation of greenhouse gas entitlements and to analyse the potential impacts of these rules EU-wide as well as on the level of member states. The methodological framework used in the empirical part of the paper is based on the GEM-E3 model, a multi-country and multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model for fourteen EU-member states. The major finding of the paper is that being ex ante favoured with respect to the initial allocation of permits might not hold ex post, i.e. when trade of permits and actual emission reductions are carried out. The reason can be found in two effects. First, the interdependence of the EU economies allows smaller economies not to make full use of the advantages they get through the ability-to-pay allocation: The negative impact on the economic perfomance of the big economies leads to a drop of export demand in the smaller economies, which in turn lowers the expected positive impact on welfare in the latter ones. Second, the way of how a surplus of permits in a particular country is used has considerable impacts on consumer welfare. Selling the surplus of permits on the international market and use the receipts to reduce public deficit is one way, but it has no direct impact on demand. Other, more demand stimulating recycling strategies of the surplus (e.g. a lump-sum transfer to households) might be more promising if welfare losses are to be minimzed. Both effects may outweigh the positive effect realized ex ante in some countries due to a more "fair" initial allocation of permits. The outcome emphasizes the importance of a consideration of full general equilibrium effects across countries

Modelling of Foreign Trade in Applied General Equilibrium Models: Theoretical Approaches and Sensitivity Analysis with the GEM-E3 Model

The specification of the world closure, i.e. the way of closing the domestic economy model by incorporating the external sector, is a crucial component for those models in which production and consumption is not specified endogenously for all countries. This paper looks explicitly at the assumptions concerning the trade behaviour of the rest of the world that can be found in literature and in empirical applications, such as the GEM-E3 General Equilibrium Model for the EU. Starting from a description of the closure rule in the actual GEM-E3 model version, two main changes in the foreign trade specification are proposed and tested using an EU-wide ecological tax reform scenario. The first change refers to the rest of the world's export supply function in which a constant finite price elasticity is introduced. The second change concerns the rest of the world's import demand function in which an activity variable is incorporated. In summary, the impact in terms of economic welfare and changes in macroeconomic variables is noteworthy for the former case while no substantial changes could be observed for the latter case. Additionally, the sensitivity of the GEM-E3 model to variations in key parameter values such as the upper-level Armington elasticity are analysed. Results indicate that the model can be interpreted as quite robust to parameter changes

Seasonal variability of the Arabian Sea intermediate circulation and its impact on seasonal changes of the upper oxygen minimum zone

Oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) in the open ocean occur below the surface in regions of weak ventilation and high biological productivity with associated sinking organic matter. Very low levels of dissolved oxygen alter biogeochemical cycles and significantly affect marine life. One of the most intense though poorly understood OMZs in the world ocean is located in the Arabian Sea between 300 and 1000 m of depth. An improved understanding of the physical processes that have an impact on the OMZ in the Arabian Sea is expected to increase the reliability of assessments of its future development. This study uses reanalysis velocity fields from the ocean model HYCOM (Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model), which are verified with observational data, to investigate advective pathways of Lagrangian particles into the Arabian Sea OMZ at intermediate depths between 200 and 800 m. In the eastern basin, the vertical expansion of the OMZ is strongest during the winter monsoon, revealing a core thickness 1000 m deep and oxygen values below 5 µmol kg−1. The minimum oxygen concentration might be favoured by a maximum water mass advection that follows the main advective pathway of Lagrangian particles along the perimeter of the basin into the eastern basin of the Arabian Sea during the winter monsoon. These water masses pass regions of high primary production and respiration, contributing to the transport of low-oxygenated water into the eastern part of the OMZ. The maximum oxygen concentration in the western basin of the Arabian Sea in May coincides with a maximum southward water mass advection in the western basin during the spring intermonsoon, supplying the western core of the OMZ with high-oxygenated water. The maximum oxygen concentration in the eastern basin of the Arabian Sea in May might be associated with the northward inflow of water across 10∘ N into the Arabian Sea, which is highest during the spring intermonsoon. The Red Sea outflow of advective particles into the western and eastern basin starts during the summer monsoon associated with the northeastward current during the summer monsoon. On the other hand, waters from the Persian Gulf are advected with little variation on seasonal timescales. As the weak seasonal cycle of oxygen concentration in the eastern and western basin can be explained by seasonally changing advection of water masses at intermediate depths into the Arabian Sea OMZ (ASOMZ), the simplified backward-trajectory approach seems to be a good method for prediction of the seasonality of advective pathways of Lagrangian particles into the ASOMZ

Penčo Slavejkovs fiktive Anthologie Auf der Insel der Seligen (1910) im Kontext europäischer Mystifikationspoetiken

Dieser Beitrag ist mit Zustimmung des Rechteinhabers aufgrund einer (DFG-geförderten) Allianz- bzw. Nationallizenz frei zugänglich.Slaveykov’s fictitious anthology On the Isle of the Blessed (Na Ostrova na blaženite, 1910) is among the most recognized and discussed works in Bulgarian literature and literary history. This literary project is often labeled “extraordinary” in its conceptual and projective power, and continues to generate new interpretations up to the present day. The focus on the Isle’s singular status in Bulgarian scholarship does however obstruct the view at times, regarding its entanglement in what could be called a European matrix of mystification practices and poetics, reaching from Scottish romanticism (James Macpherson’s Ossian project) to the scandalous forgeries of the Slavic national renaissance (the infamous Czech manuscript controversy for example), and onto the modern mask play, as represented for instance in Valery Bryusov’s Russian Symbolists (Russkie simvolisty, 1894–1895). The latter examples are examined in more detail, regarding intertextual and structural parallels with Slaveykov’s imaginary Isle. The article forwards the hypothesis that Slaveykov, explicitly aware of his precursors and their mystification models, no longer strives to “invent a tradition,” but, on the contrary, aims at simulating contemporaneity. Thus this contribution has a double aim: Firstly, to convey a comparative survey and analysis of the Isle of the Blessed within European contexts. Secondly, it intends to relate Slaveykov’s sophisticated poetics of forgery and pseudo-translation to contemporary research in this field, which understands literary fraud as the ground on which concepts of fictionality flourish in the first place.Peer Reviewe

Unzeitgemäße Betrachtungen zum Werk des bulgarischen Dichters und Denkers der Moderne Penčo Slavejkov (anlässlich seines 150. Geburtstags im Jahr 2016)

Dieser Beitrag ist mit Zustimmung des Rechteinhabers aufgrund einer (DFG-geförderten) Allianz- bzw. Nationallizenz frei zugänglich.The article serves as an introduction to the thematic cluster of papers devoted to the work of Bulgarian poet and literary theoretician Pencho Slaveykov (1866–1912), which present the outcomes of a workshop dedicated to the 150th anniversary of the poet at the Department of Slavic and Hungarian Studies, Humboldt University (Berlin 2016; supported by the German Research Foundation DFG). As Slaveykov, while a leading representative of Bulgarian modern literature, is not an established figure in comparative literary studies, the paper sketches briefly the biography of the author, or rather the “biographemes” out of which he constructs his self-representation. In summarizing the main findings of the cluster contributions, it outlines the ways in which Slaveykov and his work—as a phenomenon ‘untimely’ to his era—have been embedded into the narratives of Bulgarian literary history of the 20th and early 21st century, which reach from postmodernism and postcolonialism to new engagement, or to entangled histories.Peer Reviewe

Technologischer Wandel in AGE-Modellen: Stand der Forschung, Entwicklungsstand und -potential des GEM-E3-Modells

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Tradable SO2-Permits in the European Union: A Practicable Scheme for Public Utilities

In this paper, a practicable scheme of SO2-emission permits for European power producers is developed. Background is the second UN-ECE Sulphur Protocol from 1994 (Protocol of Oslo). After discussing some theoretical models of spatially differentiated permit schemes, evaluating the U.S. Acid Rain and RECLAIM Program, and considering the setting in the EU-15 countries, a scheme of locally undifferentiated emission permits is proposed which is distinguished by a high degree of both economic efficiency and market functioning. However, as our model simulations indicate, national deposition targets will be violated in all probability due to the scheme’s missing differentiation regarding the receptors. The risk of hot spots is addressed adequately by a differentiated bundle of countermeasures. The general economic impact of an EU-wide permit scheme is low, and, in terms of change in GDP, lower compared to a non-coordinated SO2 policy. The proposed mode of the initial permit allocation allows for early price signals and guarantees maximum static and dynamic efficiency. Balancing the interests of existing and new emitters, a long-term transition from the grandfathering to the free auction procedure is chosen